Lame Predictions : : Blu-ray

As the speculations leading up to MacWorld San Francisco's keynote address tomorrow continue, there are a bunch of web sites, blogs, and financial analysts jumping in with their big rumors about what Jobs will announce.

Amongst these predictions is that Apple is going to announce it is supporting Blu-ray. This is lame. First, Apple was one of the first tech companies to become a member in the blu-ray alliance and Apple has made announcements before supporting the standard. However, secondly and most important, just making that statement is not NEWS. Embracing Blu-ray does not come up to the standard of a keynote announcement.

OK, I am making the rules now. In order for an item to be considered worthy of a keynote announcement, it cannot be some technology parameter or the use of a binary set or a particular video bus. The "thingness" of a announcement is that you have to significantly utilize the technology, distill it down and offer it to consumers as a product.

For instance, if Apple is going to come out with a new AppleTV hardware that has a read/write blu-ray DVR drive in it than it is a product announcement worthy of note in the keynote. Short of that, a discussion of Apple using blu-ray or embracing the standard is old news and kind of a snugger or a safe easy guess without any risk, if you ask me.